Is there a future in loyalty?

(photo thanks to atomicshed on flickr)

I'm working on a pitch just now where one of the questions is 'what is the future of loyalty programmes?'

When I started in this industry loyalty schemes were new and exciting and would save the world from bad advertising. Now they're increasingly commoditised and people now expect rewards on initial purchases in the form of cash-backs on sites such as ipoints or quidco. So where's all the loyalty gone?

So here's my quick and dirty predictions. Would love to hear other people's thoughts!

• Consolidation into a few large points schemes where people can see the benefit from buying products and services across multiple sectors
• Move from points into cash-back for these larger schemes (especially online aggregator schemes)
• Successful loyalty schemes will be those that are aligned to a holistic customer data strategy that enables brands to understand and connect more with people at a personal level
• Branded loyalty schemes will evolve to focus on enhanced experience of the brand’s product or service rather than discounted points converted into unrelated goods